Chinese data indicates that the nominal value of exports to the U.S. has grown, even as U.S. data shows imports from China falling. This discrepancy increases questions around the impacts of the recently enacted 10% tariff.

“The concern with higher inflation expectations is that it can be self-fulfilling—what people and businesses expect to happen, often does.”

Unemployment numbers are likely to rise soon. The lost positions will primarily be well-paid roles held by highly educated workers, which will spill over to consumer-facing industries and housing, pushing Washington, D.C., into a mild recession by the summer.