Congress will joust over a symbolic vote on the U.S. debt limitthis week while a decision on whether to extend $3 trillion in taxcuts into 2013 probably will wait until after the Novemberelection.

Democrats and Republicans will debate Medicare cuts thatwouldn't take effect for years, though they are unlikely to resolvewhat to do about spending reductions set for next January. The onlymajor bill to clear Congress before the elections may be a plan toextend a payroll tax cut through the rest of 2012.

“We just have very different ideas on how to address theseissues,” House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, a WisconsinRepublican, said in an interview.

The House returns today from its holiday break and plans to voteon the debt limit tomorrow. Senators come back to Washington Jan.23. Edward Kleinbard, former staff director of the congressionalJoint Committee on Taxation, said lawmakers probably will focusmore on wooing voters than addressing a budgetary train wreckcoming at year's end. That's when former President George W. Bush'stax cuts, extended by President Barack Obama in December 2010, areset to expire and $1 trillion in automatic spending cuts willstart.

“I expect a great deal of hot air to be expended but nothingsubstantive to happen” before the election, said Kleinbard, now alaw professor at the University of Southern California in LosAngeles.

The fate of those tax-and-spending questions will be decided bythe election, meaning that much of lawmakers' debate this year willaim to underscore differences between the parties, not muddle thepicture with compromises, he said.

“The country is going to have to make a choice,” Ryan said. WhatCongress and Obama “will probably accomplish is framing the choicefor the country to make in 2012.”

First up is a debt-limit debate that will be largely politicaltheater. Under a budget agreement hatched out last year, Congresscreated a mechanism that in effect lets Obama unilaterally lift thelegal cap on borrowing.

House Republicans plan to adopt a resolution tomorrow rejectingObama's Jan. 12 request to raise the debt limit by $1.2 trillion,though the measure will die either in the Senate or by presidentialveto. That will allow Obama to lift the cap on his own afterRepublicans have gone on record against it.

“Congress can't keep rubber-stamping President Obama's requeststo increase the debt ceiling,” Senator Kelly Ayotte, a NewHampshire Republican, said in a statement.

'Duck Responsibility'

Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the top Democrat onthe House Budget Committee, called the debt vote a “politicalkabuki dance” that “allows a lot of Republican members to duckresponsibility for the tax and spending decisions that have beenmade by the Congress.”

Obama's annual budget request due Feb. 6 will probably restateprevious proposals, administration officials have said, includinghigher taxes for the wealthy. The president also proposes toconsolidate six agencies dealing with trade and commerce.

House Republicans plan to follow with a budget plan reprisingtheir call last year to cut taxes and overhaul Medicare. Though thelikelihood of reaching agreement with the Democratic-dominatedSenate is slim, Ryan said, “We simply owe it to the country to showhow we would do things differently.”

A proposal to continue for the rest of 2012 a 2-percentage pointcut in the payroll tax, which expires Feb. 29, might be the lastmajor bill to clear Congress before November — if lawmakers canagree on how to finance it.

The parties remain far apart on where to find about $150 billionto pay for the tax break for workers. Democrats support a surchargeon millionaires, while Republicans have proposed raising Medicarepremiums for wealthier seniors, reducing aid to the jobless andextending a pay freeze for federal workers.

Even tougher work is months ahead, when more than 100 tax cutstotaling $3 trillion are set to expire at the end of December.Among them are the Bush-era income-tax cuts, reductions in capitalgains, dividend and estate tax rates, and a number of business taxbreaks.

Further, $1 trillion in automatic spending cuts are scheduled tostart in 2013. Congress enacted the reductions last year in anunsuccessful bid to push a congressional supercommittee to findanother way to cut the deficit. The Pentagon's budget will bechopped by 10 percent, Medicare spending will be cut by 2 percentand hundreds of other programs will be reduced by 8 percent.

“The question is whether our political system can make it intoan opportunity to come to grips with the unavoidable,” said formerCongressional Budget Office Director Bob Reischauer.

Promoting Gridlock

Election-year politics aren't all that's promoting gridlock.Congress's calendar offers few chances to compel lawmakers tocompromise. Last year, lawmakers had to vote to raise the debtlimit and pass bills to keep the government operating, which gaveRepublicans opportunities to force cuts. This year, lawmakers won'tneed to pass any budget bills until the end of September.

“There is not the same opportunity for hostage-taking that wesaw this past year,” said Stan Collender, a former congressionalbudget aide.

The parties' tax-and-spending proposals will serve a purposeeven if they go nowhere before November, said Representative MickMulvaney, a South Carolina Republican.

“One of the roles of the House this year is being a messengerfor the Republican party and letting people know if you give us thelevers of power, if you give us control over the Senate and theWhite House, here is what we will do,” Mulvaney said. “This will bethe year of ideas.”

Bloomberg News

Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rightsreserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten,or redistributed.