Next week, Federal Reserve officials publish new quarterlyforecasts, and all eyes are going to be on where they set the jobmarket's Goldilocks rate.
That's the estimated unemployment level officials figure isneither too high nor so low that it starts to drive wages andprices higher. To quote Goldilocks, it's “just right.”
Fed officials in March estimated this “natural rate” ofunemployment at 5 percent to 5.2 percent. Unemployment stoodat 5.5 percent in May. A new paper by Fed board staff shakes upthis view by suggesting the number could be as low as 4.3percent.
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