Wall Street is falling further and further behind in assessingthe direction of the $14.1 trillion Treasuries market.

In March, the consensus was that 10-year yields would be well ontheir way to 3% by now. Inflation and economic growth would takehold, and the Federal Reserve would potentially tighten three timesin 2017 — perhaps even four. Or so the argument went.

Fast forward to the present, and the 10-year yield is barelyabove 2%, a key psychological level, which means going back to thedrawing board yet again. Forecasters now see 10-year yields risingto 2.48% at year-end, according to the latest Bloomberg poll. Theprojection for the end of this year is the lowest since November,just like yields themselves. As for clearing 3%? Wait until2019.

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