If defined-benefit pension plan sponsors are looking for arespite from the extreme fluctuations in funded status seen overthe last few months of 2018, they probably shouldn't hold theirbreath. After the fourth-quarter selloff, money managers seemresigned to the idea that financial markets will remain volatilefor some time. The transition back to trend-like growth in theUnited States after a year of stimulus was never likely to besmooth sailing, but the recent weakness in China, concerns overtrade relations, and the ongoing tightening by the Federal Reservehave made for an extremely uncertain outlook.

Fed Chairman Powell has managed to engineer a recovery frommarkets' December lows by suggesting the Fed will likely hold rates steady for much ofthe year. The question now becomes how long the rally mightlast.