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Pensions Swamped in a Sea of Negative Real Rates

The Fed’s commitment to ultra-low interest rates for years has put defined-benefit plans on track for significant struggles ahead.

By Brian Chappatta | December 29, 2020 at 11:08 AM

Defined-benefit pension plans were already barely treading water heading into 2020. In the years ahead, the risk is as great as ever that a large swath of them will drown.

As the name implies, defined-benefit pensions promise to pay a set amount to retirees. While corporate America has largely moved away from this structure in favor of 401(k) defined-contribution plans, virtually all state and local governments still offer pensions’ reliable retirement payouts. And they’ve been falling behind in a big way: In the 2019 fiscal year, states had $1.48 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities, while the 50 largest local governments faced $478 billion in adjusted net pension liabilities, according to calculations from Moody’s Investors Service. The 100 largest corporate defined-benefit plans had a deficit of $285 billion in November, according to Milliman data.

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Pension Management

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