The value of U.S. exports rose 3% from August to September, reaching the second-highest level on record, while imports increased a more modest 0.6%.

The dated snapshot likely doesn’t change much for Federal Reserve officials, many of whom were already leaning away from cutting interest rates again next month.

“Businesses have so far shielded consumers from much of the increase in costs due to tariffs by absorbing them in margins, but further pass-through seems very likely in the months ahead.”

Personal spending rose 0.4% last month, while inflation increased 0.2% from July and 2.9% from August 2024.

The CPI rose 0.4% in August, the most since the start of the year, but Fed officials are still likely to cut interest rates next week.

Survey reveals expectations that higher import taxes imposed by President Donald Trump will feed through more broadly into consumer prices before gradually dissipating next year.

The Christmas-decorations industry is hoping tariffs don’t ruin the holidays.

“Inflation was broadly in line with expectations, as tariffs continue to be largely absorbed within profit margins. This gives the Fed the room to respond to the weaker jobs backdrop and cut interest rates from September.”