In the Fed’s latest Beige Book survey, “all districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions.”
“China has too much leverage over the U.S. for the U.S. to continue with its hardline stance. ... What we need to keep in mind is leverage and who has that leverage.”
Imports surged in Q1 as companies scrambled to secure merchandise ahead of tariffs’ implementation, while the core PCE price index rose more than expected.
Today on Bloomberg’s “The Big Take” podcast, John Authers and David Gura discussed official and unofficial recession indicators and what the state of the economy tells us about what could lie ahead. This is a lightly edited version of their conversation.
“With the economy set to cool sharply in the coming months as tariffs take their toll, price-sensitive consumers are poised to become more judicious with their spending.”
Fed officials must decide this year whether to lower interest rates further to support the economy, or keep them elevated for longer to contain inflation. First they need to determine what proportion of inflation is tariff-related and whether that increase is temporary.
