Economy

Q1’s 2.9% decrease in profits follows a 5.4% increase in Q4/2024.

However, revised government numbers for Q1 indicate stronger business investment and a greater accumulation of inventories than initially reported.

“China has too much leverage over the U.S. for the U.S. to continue with its hardline stance. ... What we need to keep in mind is leverage and who has that leverage.”

For three months, U.S. imports from China will face a 30% tariff, while U.S. exports to China will bear a 10% levy.

Imports surged in Q1 as companies scrambled to secure merchandise ahead of tariffs’ implementation, while the core PCE price index rose more than expected.

Today on Bloomberg’s “The Big Take” podcast, John Authers and David Gura discussed official and unofficial recession indicators and what the state of the economy tells us about what could lie ahead. This is a lightly edited version of their conversation.