Interest rates are expected to stabilize soon or even begin falling. The risk is that core inflation might not come down, and a second tightening cycle might be needed.
In a letter to lawmakers today, Janet Yellen says the Treasury Department's "best estimate" is that its extraordinary accounting measures will no longer be able to satisfy all the government's obligations by early June.
The IRS has already noted 14 federal disasters in 2023—including tornadoes, mudslides, winter storms, severe rains, and flooding. These events have tax consequences for individuals and businesses.
The divide between investors with trillions at stake reflects just how tough monetary policy itself has become, as price pressures remain high and readings of headline and underlying inflation send mixed signals.
